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Drivers and scenarios for the food value chain in Norway by 2030

News - News from CICERO

Published 21.11.2016

The aim of this workshop was to create a better understanding of the linkages between different parts in the food value chain, and which factors or drivers of change are important in its future development.

We gathered representatives from the entire Norwegian food sector, including farming organisations, retail
industry, consumer organisations and specialised researchers. With this group, we identified drivers and factors that are most important and most uncertain in the food value chain. The main identified drivers are

  1. Climate and sustainability policy
  2. Food waste
  3. Extreme weather and climate
  4. Technological developments in food production
  5. Population and social developments

Policy developments are considered to be most uncertain. Secondly, we discussed how these drivers could affect the food value chain in the future under two different global scenarios for socio-economic and climatic development: the green road and the rocky road. The first scenario represents a world where global warming is limited to 1.5-2 degrees, as set forward in the ‘Paris-agreement’, while the latter scenario assumes less policy changes and a global temperature increase of 3-4 degrees. We concluded that developments in Norwegian food production are not isolated, but strongly linked to global and other sectoral developments and to global and national political ambitions. Political feasibility and enforcement as well as fossil fuel dependency and investments are crucial factors in future developments in the food industry. Regardless of global socio-economic developments, Norway will move towards higher production, less waste, equal or increased meat consumption and more vegetable and marine production.

The workshop was a part of CICERO’s SIS Kli-MAT project that aims to identify realistic and feasible options for sustainable and climate-friendly food production and consumption in Norway. Considering the entire food value chain, the research assesses how Norwegian farmers, retailers and consumers can reduce emissions while also meeting various other demands to the food sector.

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