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Development of scenarios for EU renewable policies. Discussion paper 2016-12

Berit Tennbakk, Elin Lerum Boasson, Merethe Dotterud Leiren

Based on a string of qualitative case studies, the REMIX research explores the drivers for renewables and capacity regulations at the national level and the renewables policy mix at the EU level. In the foresight analysis, we combine these insights with scenario methodology, and qualitative inputs from the larger group of partners to the REMIX project. The scenarios capture different developments in the EU framework with implications for the development of national RES policies. The purpose of scenarios is to define a likely outcome space for an uncertain future, and not to make predictions. In our case the uncertainty is related to the combined policy framework of support schemes for renewable power generation and capacity mechanisms. Key uncertainties include, on the one hand, Member States’ renewables policy ambitions and obligations, and their leeway in designing RES support measures given restrictions at the higher political level, i.e. in EU law. On the other hand, developments in the market framework, such as the degree of integration of the internal energy market (e.g. via interconnectors, harmonisation of regulations, level competition etc.) and the emergence and design of capacity mechanisms, remain uncertain. We discuss how these uncertainties can be used to map the likely outcome space and what scenario framework may capture the dynamics relevant for national renewables policy formation. This paper represents a first step in the process towards developing full-fledged scenarios. The next step will be to formulate scenario stories based on the REMIX case studies and inputs from the research group as well as the partner group.

More details

  • Year: 2017
  • Language: English