CICERO - Center for International Climate Research


WP1: Case studies for Norway – high impact events today and in the future

(Lead: Jana Sillmann, Partners: Uta Gjertsen, Helene Amundsen, Malte Müller)
Main objective: Selection of high-impact extreme events with stakeholders and outreach

  • Explore added-value of the “Tales of Future Weather” approach in supporting the adaptation planning decision-making
  • Co-production of knowledge
  • Engage with other relevant stakeholders and projects


WP2: EC-Earth simulations and atmospheric river (AR) detection

 Vertically integrated water vapor from the ECMWF analysis for an atmospheric river event on September 13, 2005 [adapted from Stohl et al. (2008)].

(Lead: Rein Haarsma, Partners: M. Müller, H. Sodemann, W. Hazeleger, N. Schaller)
Main objective: High-resolution ensemble simulations with the EC-Earth model to capture the dynamics of high-impact events.

  • Utilize ensembles of global high-resolution (~25km) atmospheric simulations to resolve extra-tropical storms and atmospheric rivers (AR)
  • Detect AR events leading to extreme precipitation/ flood events in Norway
  • Provide the boundary conditions for the dynamical downscaling in WP3


WP3: Regional NWP model simulations and analysis of extreme events

Accumulated precipitation rate (24 hours) obtained from the AROME-MetCoOp forecast for the Norwegian west coast initialized at October 28, 2014 0:00 UTC. Så mye kostet flommen på Vestlandet NVE

(Lead: Malte Müller, Partners: Rein Haarsma, Uta Gjertsen)
Main objective: Dynamical downscaling of Earth System model simulations and analysis of extreme wind and precipitation


  • Dynamical downscaling with AROME-MetCoOp (2.5-km resolution)
  • Post-processing to downscale precipitation to 1-km resolution
  • Providing Statkraft with hourly post-processed forecasts of high-resolution precipitation, wind and temperature fields


WP4: Assessing the vulnerability to future high impact events

(Lead: Uta Gjertsen, Partners: Helene Amundsen, Jana Sillmann) 
Main objective: Assessment of the vulnerability to future high-impact events


  • Document how Statkraft contributes to flood protection (Jostedal catchment)
  • Run a hydrological model for a potential flood event under future climate conditions
  • Vulnerability assessment
  • Assessment of barriers that hinder the implementation of proactive adaptation measures