Phone: +47 22 00 47 31 /
I am a climate scientist with interest in extreme weather events.
I have been at CICERO since June 2016 and curently work on three projects: ClimateXL, TWEX and S2S4E. I use the output of a wide range of models - global climate models, regional models, weather forecast models, seasonal forecast models and hydrological models - to extract information about extreme events relevant for users. I also serve as an associate editor for the journal Atmospheric Science Letters.
I obtained an early career mobility fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation in 2013 and joined the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, to work on probabilistic event attribution. A year later, I moved to the Department of Physics, University of Oxford, as a postdoc on the EUCLEIA project. I combined attribution studies with seasonal forecasting techniques to develop new methodology for representing the level of confidence in attribution results so that attribution products can be trusted to inform decision making. During my time in Oxford, I was a Junior Research Fellow at Wolfson College.
During my PhD (2009-2012) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, my research focused on methods to evaluate global climate models for precipitation and quantifying the response of the Earth's hydrological cycle and energy cycle in future warming scenarios. One of my interests lies in investigating whether the climate system responds linearly to carbon dioxide forcings of different intensities. I have also been involved in studies about the reversibility of the climate system's state and in particular how changes in the ocean circulation can affect the surface climate.
I hold a BSc in Earth Sciences and a MSc in atmospheric and climate science with a Minor in physical glaciology, both from ETH Zurich.
- Translating Weather Extremes into the Future – a case for Norway TWEX-Future.no will be taking a novel “Tales of future weather” approach. This approach suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.
- ClimateXL Weather and climate extremes are likely to be one of the largest societal challenges associated with climate change in this century. Under climate change, these extreme events will intensify and become more frequent, and consequently the risk of severe and costly damage for humans and infrastructure will increase.
- S2S4E Climate Services for Clean Energy S2S4E is a European climate services innovation project funded by Horizon2020. CICERO is the second largest partner of the consortium and leads two work packages.
- Exhaustion Air pollution is currently the largest environmental killer in Europe, causing 500,000 premature deaths annually. Heatwaves can make air pollution more lethal and cause more heart and lung diseases. Together with Universitetet i Oslo (UiO) the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and 11 other European institutions CICERO will help increase European resilience towards climate change.
Publications and outreach at CICERO
- Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, Camilla Weum Stjern, Øivind Hodnebrog, Louis Marelle, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Jana Sillmann, Nathalie Schaller, Erich Fischer, M Schulz, Andreas Stohl, 2019 Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming Scientific Reports, EN
- Hideo Shiogama, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Daisuke Murakami, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Katsumasa Tanaka, Seita Emori, Izumi Kubota, Manabu Abe, Yukiko Imada, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, Erich Fischer, John F. Scinocca, Ingo Bethke, Ludwig Lierhammer, Jun'ya Takakura, Tim Trautmann, Petra Döll, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fahad Saeed, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2019 Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change Environmental Research Letters, EN
- Sonia I. Seneviratne, Richard Wartenburger, Benoit P. Guillod, Annette L. Hirsch, Martha M. Vogel, Victor Brovkin, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Nathalie Schaller, Lena Boysen, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonathan Doelman, Peter Greve, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Tamas Krisztin, Daniel Mitchell, Alexander Popp, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jana Sillmann, Elke Stehfest, 2018 Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Royal Society Publishing, EN
- Daniel Mitchell, Clare Heaviside, Nathalie Schaller, Myles Allen, Kristie L. Ebi, Erich M. Fischer, Antonio Gasparrini, Luke Harrington, Viatcheslav Kharin, Hideo Shiogama, Jana Sillmann, Sebastian Sippel, Sotiris Vardoulakis, 2018 Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals Nature Climate Change, EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, James Anstey, Erich M. Fischer, Christian M. Grams, S. Russo, 2018 Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles Environmental Research Letters, EN
- Lukas Brunner, Nathalie Schaller, James Anstey, Jana Sillmann, Andrea K. Steiner, 2018 Dependence of Present and Future European Temperature Extremes on the Location of Atmospheric Blocking Geophysical Research Letters, EN
- Alison L. Kay, Naomi Booth, Rob Lamb, Emma Raven, Nathalie Schaller, Sarah N. Sparrow, 2018 Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain International Journal of Climatology, EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Sarah N. Sparrow, Neil R. Massey, Andy Bowery, Jonathan Miller, Simon Wilson, David C.H. Wallom, Friederike E. L. Otto, 2018 Ensemble of european regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P Scientific Data, EN
- Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Chris Huntingford, Lina M. Mercado, Nathalie Schaller, 2018 Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs - Adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, EN
- Christopher H O'Reilly, James Heatley, Dave Macleod, Antje Weisheimer, Tim N. Palmer, Nathalie Schaller, Tim Woollings, 2017 Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century Geophysical Research Letters, EN
- Jana Sillmann, Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir, Noel Keenlyside, Nathalie Schaller, L. V. Alexander, Gabi Hegerl, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers, 2017 Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities Weather and Climate Extremes, EN
- Sebastian Sippel, Daniel A. Mitchell, Mitchell Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller, Friederike E. L. Otto, Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events Weather and Climate Extremes, EN
Conference lecture and academic presentation
- Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, 2018 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global oppvarming: regionale klima ekstremer, ekstrem varme-relatert dødlighet og regionale forskjeller NO
- Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, Malte Müller, Reindert J. Haarsma, Wilco Hazeleger, Helene Amundsen, Uta Gjertsen, 2017 Translating weather extremes into the future - A case for Norway EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Alison Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andi Bowery, Sue Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William Ingram, Richard Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter Stott, Myles R. Allen, 2017 Human influence on climate in the 2014 Southern England winter floods and their impacts EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, Müller Malte, Reindert J. Haarsma, Helene Amundsen, Kirien Whan, 2017 Translating weather extremes into the future - A case for Norway EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Antje Weisheimer, C. O'Reilly, D.A. Macleod, T. N. Palmer, 2017 Multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in a new dataset of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century EN
- Nathalie Schaller, 2017 Extreme weather events and citizen science EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, Malte Müller, Dag Bjørge, 2017 First results from the West Coast event EN
- Nathalie Schaller, Jana Sillmann, Malte Müller, Reindert J. Haarsma, Helene Amundsen, Kirien Whan, 2017 Translating weather extremes into the future - A case for Norway EN