Published 23.03.2018
Here is the answer according to the IEA "Global energy and CO₂ status report"
Originally posted on Glen Peters twitter feed - all figures by IEA
Energy demand drives CO₂
* Energy demand grew by 2.1% in 2017, more than twice the rate in 2016
* 70% of the growth in (primary) energy demand was due to fossil fuels
* Renewables had similar growth to 2016, but a smaller share of the total increase in energy (25%)
Asia is King
* Global emissions up 1.4% in 2017 or 450MtCO₂
* China had 1.7% growth or 150MtCO₂ (of the 450)
* Rest of Asia grew 3% or 120MtCO₂
* WHOOPS: European Union *grew* 1.5% or 50MtCO₂
* US down 0.5% or 25MtCO₂ (calm before the storm?)
It is too soon to write the obituary for oil
* Global oil demand up 1.6%, more than twice the decadal average
* Increased vehicle ownership
* Increase SUVs & light trucks (particularly US)
* Robust growth in petrochemical feedstocks
The changing face of natural gas
* Grew 3%, well above the 1.5% of the last 5 years
* Abundant & low-cost supplies
* China led to 30% of global growth
* Last decade half the growth from power generation
* Steady shift, now 85% growth in industry & buildings
Coal is back in the black
* Coal demand up 1% in 2017
* Coal demand decreased in 2015 & 2016
* 2017 rebound driven entirely by increased coal-fired electricity
* Asia dominated the growth in coal
* Coal fed China's 6% increase in electricity demand
Renewables onwards & upwards
* Highest relative growth rate of any energy source
* Met around 25% of (primary) energy demand increase
* China & US accounted for half the increase in renewable electricity generation
* Pace of deployment remains below what is needed for 2°C
Electricity-demand
* Grew 3.1% in 2017, faster than primary energy growth
* Electricity demand remains closely linked to economic growth in emerging economies
* Renewables accounted for half the increase in generation
* Renewables supply 25% of generation, a record high
Energy efficiency
* Improvements in slowed down in 2017
* Declined by 1.7%, less than the 2.3% over last 3 years
* Caused by an apparent weakening of efficiency policy & lower energy prices
* Needs to decline by more than 3% to be in 2°C territory
It's the economy stupid!
Factors putting upward pressure on emissions:
* Stronger global economic growth
* A smaller decline in energy efficiency
* Carbon intensity a little lower than trend
* Energy & carbon intensity have to overcome economic growth for emissions to decline
Sources:
* IEA
* Web: https://www.iea.org/geco/emissions/
* pdf: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf …