Current and future climate impacts of aviation emissions are quantified using a combination of atmospheric models, surface and satellite observations and laboratory experiments. Under the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI), non-CO2 climatic impacts of commercial aviation are assessed for current (2006) and for future (2050) baseline and mitigation scenarios. The effects of the non-CO2 aircraft emissions are examined using a number of advanced climate and atmospheric chemistry transport models. Radiative forcing (RF) estimates for individual forcing effects are provided as a range for comparison against those published in the literature. Preliminary results for selected RF components for 2050 scenarios indicate that a 2% increase in fuel efficiency and a decrease in NOx emissions due to advanced aircraft technologies and operational procedures, as well as the introduction of renewable alternative fuels, will significantly decrease future aviation climate impacts. In particular, the use of renewable fuels will further decrease RF associated with sulfate aerosol and black carbon. While this focused ACCRI program effort has yielded significant new knowledge, fundamental uncertainties remain in our understanding of aviation climate impacts. These include several chemical and physical processes associated with NOx-O3-CH4 interactions and the formation of aviation-produced contrails and the effects of aviation soot aerosols on cirrus clouds as well as on deriving a measure of change in temperature from RF for aviation non-CO2 climate impacts – an important metric that informs decision-making.
- DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00089.1
- Year: 2016
- Journal: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)
- Language: English
- Issn: 0003-0007
- Publisher: American Meteorological Society