Climate Models

Arctic-boreal regions are warming at a much faster rate than the global mean. Arctic-boreal ecosystems combined are the largest reservoirs of terrestrial carbon and have long snow covered seasons. As a result, processes involved in these ecosystems have a high significance for global climate.

BUDGET will increase our understanding of the causes to why climate models have such large differences in future Arctic rainfall and summer precipitation in northern Europe. This will be accomplished using satellite data and climate model calculations over the last 40 years. The analyzes will provide knowledge of whether processes related to transport in the atmosphere, evaporation or absorption of radiation are the reasons for different results from the climate models. By using and developing the climate models with most realistic precipitation changes and largescale processes in accordance with ground-based observations and satellite measurements, we can improve estimates of precipitation change and related climate extremes.

Dust is the most abundant species of aerosol in the atmosphere. While mineral dust from deserts is the largest source, an important but less well-studied component is soil dust from sparsely vegetated surfaces. Commonly referred to as “anthropogenic dust”, arising from the influence of human activities on land surfaces and subsequent increase in wind erosion and dust emissions, this source is believed to contribute a substantial fraction to the total global dust load. However, the contribution and climate impact of anthropogenic dust, through interactions with radiation, clouds and precipitation, is poorly quantified.

Emissions of Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols (A3) are rapidly changing - most notably black carbon and sulphate aerosol precursors from India and China. The resulting range of climate impacts and societal hazards may dominate regionally over greenhouse gas induced trends for the next several decades, but the implications are as yet insufficiently explored. CATHY (Climate implications of rapid changes in Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol emissions: Temperature, Hydrological cycle and variabilitY) tackles the urgent need for quantifying climate related hazards resulting from ongoing and projected changes in A3 emissions.

Overshooting the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility, but what does such temperature overshoots imply for the planning and design of adaptation action? The PROVIDE project will deliver information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, covering both sectors and geographical regions. The information will directly feed into adaptation action. 

In EPIC we are investigating a possible link between changes in air pollution and a trend towards more hazardous extreme precipitation. Our overall goal is to increase our understanding of what controls extreme precipitation and reduce the uncertainty in estimates of future extremes. At this stage of our project, we are analyzing observational data and running cloud models to investigate how heavy precipitation reacts to our particle emissions.

The ESM2025 EU-funded research project aims to build a new generation of Earth system models better fitted to support the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in line with the Paris Agreement.

The Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the world, with dramatically decreasing trends in sea-ice and snow cover (AMAP,2017). This ‘Arctic amplification’ of global warming is a feature of human-made climate change, but its causes and consequences are not fully understood.

ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System) is a programme within the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) list of European infrastructures. 

The EU-funded project 4C (Climate-Carbon Interactions in the Current Century) aims to fill the knowledge gap surrounding climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions by reducing the uncertainty in our quantitative understanding of carbon-climate interactions and feedbacks.