Emission scenarios

How much will deadly heat cost European societies in the coming decades – not only in lives lost but in economic welfare terms? A recent paper from the EXHAUSTION project “What are the costs of heat spell mortality in Europe’s urban areas up to 2050?” addresses that question. 

Governments and organizations set climate targets motivated by findings in IPCC reports. A new study by CICERO finds that an uneven representation of models and studies in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report can lead to biased statistics and policy impacts. 

While emissions have grown and climate targets become more ambitious over the last decade, the investments needed to limit global warming to below 1.5-2°C have not increased, thanks to faster-than-expected reduction in costs of clean technologies such as solar, wind and battery storage. This analysis was published in Nature Climate Change. 

According to a new report by the Global Carbon Project, emissions of nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas about 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide – continued unabated between 1980 and 2020.

How are global emissions projected to develop in the years to come? To reach pathways consistent with the goals in the Paris Agreement, global CO₂ emissions should be falling by around five percent this year.

The latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completes its trilogy on causes, impacts and solutions relating to global warming. The key to understanding the solutions lie in the scenarios that illustrate how society may develop towards a carbon-free future.

During the recent Glasgow Climate Conference (COP26) there was a lot of focus on the climate outcomes of new climate policy pledges. A new analysis shows that these outcomes are more uncertain then often assumed.

A relatively unknown greenhouse gas plays an important role in climate and ozone depletion, and its importance will continue to increase to meet the growing demand for food, fibre, and energy.

COMMENTARY: A new paper suggests a rather significant upward revision of the carbon budget for 1.5°C. This is a potential game changer, but it is too early to reformulate mitigation plans.

COMMENTARY: Despite the complexity of the climate system, there is a rather simple relationship between the long-term temperature increase and the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted. Why, then, is there no clear answer to how much we can emit?