CICERO - Center for International Climate Research

Phone: +47 22 00 47 39 /


I am a Geo-ecologist (MSc) and specialized in analyses of climate extremes in climate models (PhD, IMPRS ESM, Hamburg). 

I study various factors that can drive changes in climate extremes, such as climate variability and anthropogenic factors (e.g., greenhouse gases and air pollution). I use interdisciplinary approaches and work on a better integration of natural and social sciences. Particularly, I am interested in relating physical aspects of climate extremes to socio-economic impacts and questions related to risk assessment and decision making.

  • Lead Author for IPCC AR6 WG1, Chapter 12 "Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment"
  • Member of the Scientific Committee for the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Programme 
  • Co-lead WCRP Grand Challenges on Climate Extremes (GC Extremes)
  • Contributing Author to IPCC AR5 WG1, Chapters 9 and 12 (IPCC 2013)
  • Invited expert to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) (2010-2017)
  • Expert member of the WMO CCl Task Team on Tailored Climate Information (TT-TCI) (2014-2018)

Podcast with Nature Editor Michael White - Jana Sillmann and climate extremes


Selected past events:

IPCC Workshop on Regional Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies" (São José dos Campos, Brazil, 2015), Report

Workshop on Understanding, Modeling and Predicting Climate Extremes (Oslo, October 5-7, 2015), Paper

Extreme Events and Environments -E3S Future Earth workshop (Berlin, 2016)

FutureEarth-PROVIA-IPCC Workshop on Risk and Solutions (Stockholm, 2016)

Session on "Climate extremes and their implications in impact modelling studies", AGU Fall meeting 2016, (San Francisco, USA, 2016)

Session on "Climate extremes, biosphere and society: impacts, remote sensing, and feedbacks (co-organized)", EGU (Vienna, 2017)

IPCC AR6 scoping meeting (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 2017)

Workshop on "Indicators for climate extremes and socio-economic impacts under different emission targets" (JRC Ispra, Italy, October 2017)


Upcoming events:

GEWEX Open Science Conference: Extremes and Water on the Edge, Canmore, AB, Canada

  • Session on “Climate Extremes, Ecosystems and Society” Conveners: Jana Sillmann, Markus Reichstein, Dáithí Stone (May 9th, morning)
  • WCRP side event on the Knowledge Action Network on Emergent Risks and Extreme Events (Risk KAN) (May 11th, afternoon)


IPCC Expert Meeting on Assessing Climate Information for Regions, Trieste, Italy (May 16-18, 2018)


Selected recent publications:

Sillmann, J., S. Russo, S. Sippel and K. Alnes, 2018: From Hazard to Risk, BAMS, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0327.1. PDF download

Schaller, N., J. Sillmann, J. Anstey, E.M. Fischer, C.M. Grams and S. Russo, 2018: Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles. Environ. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaba55. PDF download

Sillmann, J., T. Thorarinsdottir, N. Keenlyside, N. Schaller et al. (2017) “Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities”, Weather and Climate Extremes, 18, 65-74, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003. PDF download


Two most cited publications:

Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 1: Model evaluation in the present climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1716-1733, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50203. DOWNLOAD LINK

Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Part 2: Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2473-2493, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50188. DOWNLOAD LINK



  • CiXPAG - Interaction of Climate Extremes, Air Pollution and Agro-ecosystems Future food production, and consequently food security, is very sensitive to both climate change and air pollution. So far, little is known about how climate extremes and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture or about the relative effectiveness of climate change adaptation and ozone regulation measures for various crops and regions.
  • HYPRE - HYdropower and PREcipitation trends Investigating historical and future precipitation trends in regions important for hydropower production
  • Translating Weather Extremes into the Future – a case for Norway will be taking a novel “Tales of future weather” approach. This approach suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.
  • ClimateXL Weather and climate extremes are likely to be one of the largest societal challenges associated with climate change in this century. Under climate change, these extreme events will intensify and become more frequent, and consequently the risk of severe and costly damage for humans and infrastructure will increase.
  • SUPER - SUb-daily Precipitation Extremes in highly-populated Regions The main objective of SUPER is to quantify the influence of anthropogenic activity on sub-daily extreme precipitation in highly populated regions
  • ClimINVEST - Tools for climate-resilient investment Climate change is increasingly affecting financial assets across the globe. The ClimINVEST project brings scientists and investors together to develop tailored tools for assessing physical climate risk and identifying climate-resilient investment opportunities. 
  • S2S4E Climate Services for Clean Energy S2S4E is a European climate services innovation project funded by Horizon2020. CICERO is the second largest partner of the consortium and leads two work packages.

Web articles

  • Climate services at Our Common Future CICERO researchers Jana Sillmann and Karianne de Bruin are co convening a session on climate services during Our Common Future in Paris. 
  • Heat waves in Africa every year from 2040? Climate analysis shows that periods of unusually hot weather are on the rise for one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change, even if the increase in global average temperature remains at a modest level.
  • Making sense of future climate Did you believe only science fiction deal with futuretypes? Well, think again. A bunch of real scientists is carving out possible futuristic climate scenarios right now, and if you live in Norway, they might be zooming in on your hometown.
  • A wet, hot future There are heat waves, and then there are humid heat waves. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. This is going to make tomorrow’s heat waves dangerously hot.
  • Human health under threat by extreme heat and air pollution Extreme heat and high levels of air pollution create a major and immediate threat to human health. How should climate research respond?